Glut in Global Rice Supply May Keep Prices Depressed into 2026

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ByJi-hyun

A global oversupply of rice is projected to keep prices subdued well into 2026, according to a joint analysis by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and The Rice Trader.

The continued glut is being driven primarily by India’s record harvests and swelling government reserves, which have pushed the country’s rice stocks to an estimated 37.9 million metric tons as of August. With production expected to exceed domestic consumption by as much as 30 million metric tons, India’s influence on international pricing has grown stronger.

The country’s decision to lift its rice export ban earlier this year further intensified the downward trend, as it re-entered the global market with renewed force. By August, India had already exported more than 14.7 million metric tons—far surpassing Thailand and Vietnam’s combined shipments—positioning itself once again as the world’s leading supplier and price setter.

The situation is compounded by a lack of robust import demand. The global stock-to-use ratio for rice has surged above 34 percent, marking one of the highest levels in recent years. Worldwide production for the 2024–2025 cycle is projected to reach around 541 million metric tons, leaving many producing countries with excess carryover inventories.

In response, import-reliant nations such as the Philippines and Indonesia have begun scaling back on purchases, aiming to protect their local farmers from the effects of cheap imports. Experts note that this muted demand is likely to prevent any significant rebound in prices in the near future.

The implications of this oversupply are wide-ranging. Farmers in exporting nations could face slimmer profit margins and financial stress, while import-dependent countries might enjoy lower prices for consumers, but at the cost of domestic producer competitiveness. Traders and middlemen also face narrower profit spreads as market competition increases.

Analysts warn that unless a major disruption—such as extreme weather or geopolitical conflict—intervenes, the current conditions are likely to keep global rice prices depressed well into 2026.

Hailing from California, USA. Ji-hyun is a Korean American 🇰🇷🇺🇸 with two growing boys who eat their weight in rice each week. After graduating UCLA & becoming a mom she started We Know Rice as a guide for all the students and moms out there looking to cook healthy and filling meals.