Rice and Coffee Production in Indonesia at Risk Due to Climate Change


Indonesia is among the leading producers of rice and coffee in the world. However, according to a study by the UN, continued carbon emissions would significantly reduce rice and coffee production in the country.

The study, titled “Impact of Climate Change in Indonesian Agriculture,” found that continued climate change would cut rice production in Indonesia by millions of tons a year. The study also projected that exports would be reduced by a third and that prices would surge by 50%.

In coffee production and yields, the study showed that a similar trend will happen.

According to reports, it was noted in the study that extreme climate conditions will cause a significant reduction in planted areas and agricultural production.

Edvin Aldrian, lead author of the study stated, “Our report shows the stark contrast between a world in which emissions are high and one where emissions fall. There are significant economic incentives to increasing efforts to cut emissions, to save ourselves from the devastating impacts we would otherwise see.”

The study showed that the rise of sea levels will increase salinization, flooding, and the loss of rice fields in coastal areas. This will impact Indonesian rice production by 3.5 million tons or equivalent to fulfilling the rice consumption of 17.7 million people.

Scientists have also projected an increase for both Arabica and Robusta coffee bean varieties of around 32% by 2050, and 56 to 109% between 2050 to 2100.

While the study mainly focuses on the Indonesian economy and food security, it is projected that it will create a huge domino effect on the global market as well. Currently, the Russia-Ukraine war has impacted the global economy and the availability of resources.

According to the scientists involved in the study, if there are no serious mitigation efforts to shift away from fossil fuels globally, there will be a 50% loss of productivity. This amounts to a decreased production of 8 million tons or equivalent to the rice consumption of 42 million people.

Countries that have significant agricultural production in their coastal areas will also be impacted in a similar manner.

Pedinan, an author of the study, stated, “The economic costs of the impacts of continued climate change on agricultural production show it is essential to make stronger commitments to manage climate risks and stabilize food supply, which are essential for achieving Indonesia’s development targets.”