Japan’s 2024 Rice Production Set to Surpass Estimated Demand but Prices May Remain High

According to Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the country’s rice production for 2024 is expected to reach 6.83 million tons. This amount surpasses the demand for the 2024 through June 2025 of 6.74 million tons.

By the end of June 2025, private-sector rice inventories are projected to reach 1.62 million tons, an improvement from the all-time low of 1.53 million tons a year earlier. The Ministry says that this bodes well for the recent supply shortages and price surge due to the previous season’s low harvest which was caused by the extreme summer heat.

However, the ministry also cautioned that the price of rice may remain relatively high. According to observers, this is because inflation is expected to keep production costs for utilities and fertilizers elevated.

The ministry believes that the long-term downward trend will remain in place as the recent demand growth may simply be a result of a slower pace in rice price increases than those of noodles and bread, as well as more consumption in restaurants due to the current booming inbound tourism.

Production volume in 2025 is expected to stay the same at 6.83 million tons. However, the ministry perceives that the demand is likely to fall to 6.63 million tons particularly due to high prices.

The supply and demand outlook may be revised but in a meeting hosted by the ministry, experts warned that “the risk of a downturn in demand is high” because of the reversal impact of the sudden increase in demand this year and increasing prices.

The ministry also released an analysis of rice shortages over the summer, reporting that rice supply failed to keep up with the rise in demand from stockpiling in August after the weather agency issued its first-ever advisory warning of the increased risk of a megaquake along the Nankai Trough.