After Plunging to a Six-Year Low, Global Rice Prices Show Signs of Recovery

|
ByJi-hyun

International rice prices, which dropped sharply in 2025 to their lowest point in six years, have begun to inch upward toward the end of the year, offering a modest turnaround after a prolonged slump. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the FAO All Rice Index averaged around 103.5 points for 2025, a 22.2% decline from the previous year, marking the lowest nominal level since 2019.

The price downturn reflected widespread declines across various rice grades, with Indica rice varieties experiencing some of the steepest drops. However, the late-year uptick suggests the market may be stabilizing after an extended period of oversupply and weak demand.

Market analysts point to several factors behind the prolonged price weakness. Strong harvests in major producing countries, coupled with ample global inventories, have kept downward pressure on values. Earlier in 2025, major exporters reported falling rice export prices as abundant stocks undercut market support.

For consumers, especially in rice-dependent regions such as Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, the overall drop in prices has helped ease food costs. In the Philippines, for example, continued declines in rice prices last year contributed to lower overall food inflation figures, helping temper the country’s headline inflation rate.

Despite the recent lift in prices, many industry observers remain cautious about expecting a strong or sustained rebound. Global supply remains high, and production forecasts for 2025/26 continue to signal robust output in Asia’s top rice-producing nations.

Looking ahead, a combination of factors could influence future rice price trends. These include weather patterns that affect crop yields, shifts in domestic policies on imports and tariffs, and changes in consumption demand. Some governments, such as the Philippines, have already taken steps like adjusting import controls and tariffs to better align rice supply with local production and support farmers while balancing consumer prices.

Overall, while December’s data shows early signs that the rice market may be finding a floor, experts warn that ample supplies and ongoing trade dynamics are likely to keep prices from escalating rapidly in the near term.

Hailing from California, USA. Ji-hyun is a Korean American 🇰🇷🇺🇸 with two growing boys who eat their weight in rice each week. After graduating UCLA & becoming a mom she started We Know Rice as a guide for all the students and moms out there looking to cook healthy and filling meals.