Vietnam Rice Export Sector Encounters Challenges in the First Two Months of 2025
After India lifted its rice export ban in September 2024, the global rice market shifted rapidly. Due to that, the rice export sector in Vietnam encountered significant turbulence in the first two months of 2025. Vietnam’s 5% broken rice plummeted to USD 393 per tonne as of March, marking a 40% drop from the end of 2023. This sharp decline places Vietnam’s rice price at the lowest among major exporting nations, just slightly above Pakistan.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment brought together key stakeholders, local authorities, industry associations, and leading rice exporters in a crucial meeting to assess the situation and devise immediate and long-term solutions.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production is predicted to hit a record 532.7 million tonnes in 2025, contributing to a total supply of 712.15 million tonnes. However, consumption of rice, while growing to 530.5 million tonnes, is still lagging behind the supply surge. The imbalance has intensified price pressures due to India’s return to the market and increased exports from Kazakhstan.
According to Ngo Hong Phong, the Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development, the global rice trade in 2025 is projected to reach 58.5 million tonnes, which is slightly below 2024 levels.
Vietnam’s Mekong Delta is expected to produce 24.05 million tonnes in 2025, with an estimated over 7.54 million tonnes allocated for export. Despite the output, exporters face challenges securing favorable contracts as importers, especially in Southeast Asia, delay purchases, anticipating further price drops.
An Giang Province reported that it had exported 29,000 tonnes in the first two months of 2025, generating USD 15.2 million. Vice Charmain of An Gian Provincial People’s Committee Ngô Công Thức noted that while the export contributed significantly to the local economy, there is a need for stronger government support. “We must attract large-scale investments and build integrated production-consumption chains to stabilize the market,” he said.
Industry leaders and government officials proposed several strategies to solve and navigate the current turmoil. Đỗ Hà Nam, Vice Charmain of the Vietnam Food Association, urged the State Bank of Vietnam to ease access to credit, increase lending limits, and extend repayment periods. Doing so would enable enterprises to hold inventory, avoid distressed sales, and wait for better prices. He further explained that creating state-supported rice warehouses would allow businesses to stockpile during periods of oversupply and release inventory strategically to stabilize prices.
Stakeholders also recommended reinstating a minimum export price, suggesting a floor price of USD 500 per tonne to protect exporters from excessive losses.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) is actively reviewing this measure as well as exploring ways to activate strategic reserves for market stabilization. A stricter monitoring of intermediary traders who drive speculative price drops was also suggested to prevent market manipulation.
Nguyễn Sinh Nhật Tân, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade said that diversifying export markets beyond traditional partners like the Philippines and Indonesia was essential.
Enhancing rice quality and promoting high-value specialty rice varieties could also help Vietnam set itself apart in the global market. Fostering partnerships with international research institutions to develop resilient, high-yield strains and promoting organic and sustainably grown rice could also help command premium prices.
It was also suggested that the government and private sector could collaborate on large-scale infrastructure projects, including modernizing rice milling and packaging facilities to meet international quality standards. Another way to enhance Vietnam’s competitiveness in distant markets like Africa and the Middle East is to invest in better logistics networks to reduce transportation costs.
Tân said, “Our priority is to balance export growth with domestic price stability while accelerating market access efforts globally.” The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is compiling all feedback from the recent meeting to draft an emergency directive for the Prime Minister, detailing both immediate relief measures and structural reforms.
