Rice Prices in the Philippines Expected to Decrease by 20% in September

During the Philippine Economic Briefing held in Pasay City, Metro Manila, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto stated that the Philippines may see lower rice prices around September.

“We expect rice prices to go down by 20 percent in September. This would entail an increase in production and a reduction in tariffs. I think we have a game plan in place as far as that is concerned. That is something we can have a grip on and we expect it to go down between July to September,” he said, without divulging any details of the government’s strategy.

Socioeconomic Secretary Arsenio Balisacan stated that rice prices are expected to decrease in the coming months, in line with the global trend. “Those world prices are expected to go down by September this year so we expect the inflationary pressure on rice to start coming down as the year ends,” he stated, noting that the supply from the world market is expected to ease as the El Niño phenomenon cools down.

“Inflation in the past quarters are coming from the supply side… Major exporting countries tried to reduce their exports in order to protect their domestic consumers,” Secretary Baliscan added.

According to the International Monetary Fund, inflation in the Philippines is “very much related to supply shocks.”

Ragnar Gudmundsson, resident representative to the Philippines of the International Monetary Fund said, “Imports of cheaper food items are encouraged so we can mitigate the impact of food prices for more vulnerable households.”

In early May, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that the Philippines, a country with a vast number of rice fields, is positioned to become the world’s top importer of rice in 2025. USDA data showed that the Philippines is expected to import around 4.2 million metric tons (MT) of rice next year, an amount that is over half of the 1.5 million MT set to be imported by Indonesia, which is Southeast Asia’s largest economy.