The findings offer a rare piece of good news in the fight against climate change: farmers don’t necessarily have to choose between feeding a growing population and protecting the environment.

Rice feeds more than half of the world’s population, making it one of the most important crops on Earth. But it also comes with a major environmental cost. Rice cultivation is responsible for a large share of greenhouse gas emissions from grain production, largely due to methane released from flooded fields.

That creates a difficult balancing act. Increasing production to meet global demand often leads to higher emissions, while reducing emissions can sometimes lower yields.

To better understand this trade-off, researchers analyzed more than 5,000 field experiments collected from over 500 scientific studies conducted between 1991 and 2024. Instead of looking at farming techniques in isolation, the team evaluated how different practices interact across the entire rice-growing process—from soil preparation to post-harvest management.

This broader approach allowed them to identify combinations of methods that work together, rather than focusing on single changes that may only deliver partial results.

The Key Insight: “Win-Win” Farming Is Possible

The most important takeaway is that certain farming strategies can both:

• Maintain or increase rice yields
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

In other words, sustainable rice farming doesn’t have to come at the expense of productivity.

Researchers used a metric called greenhouse gas intensity—essentially emissions per unit of rice produced—to pinpoint these “win-win” practices. This shift in measurement is crucial. Instead of just asking “How much does farming emit?”, the better question becomes: “How efficiently are we producing food?”

Methane Production of Rice

The study also explains why rice farming is such a major source of emissions. Flooded rice fields create oxygen-poor conditions in the soil. This environment allows microbes to break down organic material and release methane—a powerful greenhouse gas.

In fact, methane accounts for the overwhelming majority of emissions from rice cultivation, far more than other gases like nitrous oxide. That means even small changes in water management or soil conditions can have a big impact on emissions.

Not All Farms Are the Same

One of the most important findings is that the effectiveness of sustainable practices depends heavily on local conditions. Factors like soil type, climate, and the growing season all influence how much emissions are produced—and how well certain techniques work.

For example, fields with organic-rich soils or those farmed later in the season tend to generate significantly higher methane emissions. This suggests that there is no universal solution. Instead, farmers need region-specific strategies tailored to their environment.

A Shift Toward Smarter Farming Systems

Rather than focusing on single interventions like fertilizer use or irrigation, the study highlights the importance of integrated farming systems. These systems consider water management, nutrient use, crop timing, and soil conditions as interconnected parts of a larger system.

By optimizing these elements together, farmers can reduce emissions while maintaining strong yields—a more realistic approach than relying on one-size-fits-all solutions.

Why This Matters Now

Global demand for rice continues to rise, especially in regions where it is a dietary staple. At the same time, agriculture is under increasing pressure to reduce its environmental impact. This research shows that the two goals don’t have to be in conflict. With the right combination of practices, rice farming can become more efficient, more sustainable, and better suited to the challenges of climate change.

The study points to a broader shift in how agriculture is being rethought. Instead of maximizing output at any cost, the focus is moving toward:

• Producing more food per unit of environmental impact
• Adapting farming practices to local conditions
• Using data and large-scale analysis to guide decisions

Rice may be the focus here, but the implications extend far beyond a single crop. If similar approaches are applied across agriculture, the global food system could move closer to a future where productivity and sustainability go hand in hand.

The price downturn reflected widespread declines across various rice grades, with Indica rice varieties experiencing some of the steepest drops. However, the late-year uptick suggests the market may be stabilizing after an extended period of oversupply and weak demand.

Market analysts point to several factors behind the prolonged price weakness. Strong harvests in major producing countries, coupled with ample global inventories, have kept downward pressure on values. Earlier in 2025, major exporters reported falling rice export prices as abundant stocks undercut market support.

For consumers, especially in rice-dependent regions such as Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, the overall drop in prices has helped ease food costs. In the Philippines, for example, continued declines in rice prices last year contributed to lower overall food inflation figures, helping temper the country’s headline inflation rate.

Despite the recent lift in prices, many industry observers remain cautious about expecting a strong or sustained rebound. Global supply remains high, and production forecasts for 2025/26 continue to signal robust output in Asia’s top rice-producing nations.

Looking ahead, a combination of factors could influence future rice price trends. These include weather patterns that affect crop yields, shifts in domestic policies on imports and tariffs, and changes in consumption demand. Some governments, such as the Philippines, have already taken steps like adjusting import controls and tariffs to better align rice supply with local production and support farmers while balancing consumer prices.

Overall, while December’s data shows early signs that the rice market may be finding a floor, experts warn that ample supplies and ongoing trade dynamics are likely to keep prices from escalating rapidly in the near term.

During a December 3, 2025, event, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel highlighted the hard work of local rice breeders whose efforts have helped elevate the country’s rice standards.

Dinorado, known locally as NSIC Rc 218 SR or Mabango 3, has been developed to meet both local preferences and global benchmarks. Laurel’s remarks underscored how Filipino agricultural science and breeding programs are contributing to domestic food security while also producing grains that can compete with top-tier international varieties.

The recognition of Dinorado builds on efforts to support the rice industry and promote Philippine-grown products in broader markets.

The continued glut is being driven primarily by India’s record harvests and swelling government reserves, which have pushed the country’s rice stocks to an estimated 37.9 million metric tons as of August. With production expected to exceed domestic consumption by as much as 30 million metric tons, India’s influence on international pricing has grown stronger.

The country’s decision to lift its rice export ban earlier this year further intensified the downward trend, as it re-entered the global market with renewed force. By August, India had already exported more than 14.7 million metric tons—far surpassing Thailand and Vietnam’s combined shipments—positioning itself once again as the world’s leading supplier and price setter.

The situation is compounded by a lack of robust import demand. The global stock-to-use ratio for rice has surged above 34 percent, marking one of the highest levels in recent years. Worldwide production for the 2024–2025 cycle is projected to reach around 541 million metric tons, leaving many producing countries with excess carryover inventories.

In response, import-reliant nations such as the Philippines and Indonesia have begun scaling back on purchases, aiming to protect their local farmers from the effects of cheap imports. Experts note that this muted demand is likely to prevent any significant rebound in prices in the near future.

The implications of this oversupply are wide-ranging. Farmers in exporting nations could face slimmer profit margins and financial stress, while import-dependent countries might enjoy lower prices for consumers, but at the cost of domestic producer competitiveness. Traders and middlemen also face narrower profit spreads as market competition increases.

Analysts warn that unless a major disruption—such as extreme weather or geopolitical conflict—intervenes, the current conditions are likely to keep global rice prices depressed well into 2026.

Mounting Pressures on Rice Systems

The opening remarks from IRRI’s Asia Representative, Dr. Jongsoo Shin, painted a stark picture: farmers are grappling with soaring input costs, unpredictable weather patterns, shifting consumer habits, and geopolitical trade tensions. These growing pressures threaten both productivity and affordability—making innovation and coordination essential.

At the webinar, IRRI Director General Dr. Yvonne Pinto delivered a video address urging immediate and sustained collaboration. She emphasized that research and cooperation are not optional in today’s volatile environment—they are urgent necessities.

Global Demand Continues Growing

According to IRRI senior scientist Dr. Alisher Mirzabaev, the global rice sector is substantial—valued at an estimated USD 332 billion annually. He explained that rising incomes, urbanization, and evolving dietary preferences are fueling increased rice consumption, particularly in Asia and Africa. As populations grow and diets diversify, pressure mounts on existing production systems to keep pace.

Supply Side Constraints and Market Volatility

Meanwhile, rice production—especially in high-yield areas—is bumping up against ecological and spatial limits. Further expansion of farmland is becoming unsustainable in many regions, meaning future growth must rely on healthier yields, not more land under cultivation.

Mirzabaev noted that rice prices remain highly volatile, exposing both smallholder farmers and urban consumers to sudden market shocks. He called on countries to invest more in adaptive research, enhanced yield technologies, robust buffer stock systems, and smart trade and insurance policies to cushion against these swings.

Cooperation as a Lifeline

CORRA—established by IRRI alongside national agricultural research systems from 17 Asian countries—serves as a key platform for aligning research, policy, and practical solutions. CORRA members at the webinar reaffirmed their commitment to long-term collaboration to shield the rice sector from future disruptions.

Looking ahead, CORRA’s annual meeting is scheduled for October 2025 in Uzbekistan. The event will be hosted by the Rice Research Institute – National Center for Knowledge and Innovation in Agriculture (RRI-NCKIA) and is expected to further emphasize regional cooperation and strategic alignment.

Why the Global Rice Trade Is in Flux

Rice is the world’s most consumed staple. In Asia, more than two billion people rely on rice for up to 80 percent of their daily calories. Less than 10 percent of total rice production is traded internationally, but exporters in Southeast and South Asia—particularly Thailand, Vietnam, and India—dominate that market.

Although the U.S. accounts for only around 1 percent of global rice output, it contributes roughly 5 percent of exports. That export link is critical to U.S. producers.

A Rising Threat: Vietnam’s Competitive Edge

Vietnam has rapidly expanded its rice exports. In recent years, it has supplied up to 85 percent of the Philippines’ rice imports, demonstrating swift responsiveness to trade disruptions. With approximately 82 percent of its agricultural land devoted to rice, Vietnam enjoys both scale and specialization unmatched by U.S. producers, who cultivate rice on less than 1 percent of land.

Vietnam’s global footprint is strengthened by its CPTPP membership, enhancing access to key Asian markets. As trade relationships shift, buyers like Japan—historically a U.S. customer—could increasingly turn to Vietnamese suppliers if U.S. rice becomes comparatively expensive or uncertain.

Challenges Facing U.S. Rice Producers

U.S. rice farms typically operate on tight profit margins. Disruptions in export demand could quickly result in financial strain. While price spikes or local demand may temporarily help, long‑term viability depends on stable international trade.

Costly trade shifts triggered by tariffs or policy changes make it hard for U.S. growers to pivot. Cropping decisions—such as rotating to other grains—require compatible soil, infrastructure, and equipment, making swift changes difficult and risky.

The USA Rice Federation, representing growers, has supported measures targeting unfair import practices. Still, its members are wary that retaliatory tariffs or policy swings could further threaten their market share.

Opportunities and Risks for Vietnam

Vietnam stands to benefit from current trade dislocations. Its high land-use efficiency and policy alignment give it flexibility to replace the U.S. supply, particularly in price-sensitive import markets.

That said, Vietnam faces its own hurdles: risks of climate stress in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, fragmentation among small farms, and environmental impacts, including methane emissions. Experts suggest investing in irrigation modernization, farm consolidation, environmental resilience, and export quality upgrades to maintain growth.

Broader Global Trends

The global rice market rose from 47.9 million metric tons in 2018–19 to 54.6 million metric tons in 2023–24, largely driven by Asia’s dominance in both output and exports. Southeast Asia remains the largest rice‑exporting region, shipping mostly to West Africa, East Asia, and the Middle East.

Trade interference, tariff volatility, and geopolitical friction—including tensions over transshipment of Chinese goods via Vietnam—add layers of uncertainty. Indonesian buyers, for example, delayed major Vietnamese rice imports due to sudden price drops and renegotiations. Regional trading frameworks and tariff policies across Southeast Asia continue to evolve.

What This Means Going Forward

Both countries must recalibrate their strategy:

• U.S. policymakers and industry leaders should support domestic growers through trade rule enforcement, subsidy programs for exposure mitigation, and efforts to maintain market access abroad.
• Vietnamese policymakers must manage expansion with climate resilience efforts, modernization of supply chains, environmental safeguards, and higher export quality consistent with global expectations.

The decisions made today by both countries will shape not just rice trade trajectories but also global food security and agricultural sustainability for the long term.

Recent consumer data shows that individuals in their 20s and 30s are fueling demand for RTE rice blends featuring ingredients such as barley, black beans, sorghum, and millet. These grains are valued for their higher fiber content, heart health benefits, and more balanced nutritional profile compared to white rice. For many young South Koreans, multigrain rice is seen not just as an alternative but as a deliberate health upgrade.

Convenience also plays a key role in the growing popularity of these products. As more people live alone and prepare quick meals at home, RTE rice offerings provide a fast, mess-free option that doesn’t sacrifice nutrition. The rise of “homespoon” dining culture—where meals are enjoyed solo at home—has made these pre-cooked grain blends a staple in many pantries.

Multigrain rice dishes like ogokbap and kongbap have long been part of traditional Korean cuisine, typically served during holidays or special occasions. Today, younger generations are incorporating these blends into their everyday routines, motivated more by health benefits than cultural tradition. The blends offer variety in texture and flavor while reconnecting diners with familiar elements of their food heritage.

To keep pace with consumer demand, manufacturers in the home meal replacement sector are expanding their mixed-grain rice lines. New products now include combinations featuring adzuki beans, black soybeans, and other nutrient-dense grains. These options, often marketed under names like japgokbap, are tailored to health-conscious consumers looking for a balance between taste and nutrition.

Looking ahead, food producers are exploring ways to innovate even further. Future developments in the RTE category may include multigrain rice infused with plant proteins, seaweed, or fermented ingredients. Additionally, younger consumers are placing greater value on transparency and sustainability, which could push brands to highlight sourcing practices and nutritional integrity in their packaging and marketing.

As dietary habits evolve, South Korea’s RTE rice market is becoming a space where tradition, health, and modern convenience intersect, reshaping how a staple food fits into contemporary life.

The global market for rice shampoo bars is on track for steady expansion, with Future Market Insights forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.7% between 2024 and 2034. During this period, market valuation is expected to grow from around $827.8 million this year to an estimated $1.314 million by 2034.

Consumer Demand and Sustainability Driving Growth

• Shift toward natural products: A rising consumer preference for plant-based and chemical-free personal care items is fueling demand for rice shampoo bars. Their natural ingredient composition is appealing to those wary of harsh chemicals.
• Eco-friendly packaging: These bars are typically sold with zero or minimal plastic packaging, resonating with environmentally conscious buyers.
• Convenience and versatility: With their compact form and multifunctionality (shampoo and conditioner in one), they suit on-the-go lifestyles, especially for travel.

Market Segments and Geographic Highlights

• Ingredients: Rice water dominates the product mix, favored for its hydrating and strengthening effects.
• Hair concerns: Products targeting dry and damaged hair make up over 60% of the market, reflecting growing hair-care needs.
• Regional leaders:
  • Asia-Pacific is expected to lead the growth trajectory, driven by cultural familiarity and increasing consciousness of natural beauty trends.
  • North America remains the largest single market in terms of value, supported by innovation and distribution networks.
  • European consumers are also embracing these products through demands for sustainable packaging and ethically sourced ingredients.

Strategic Insights for Brands

• R&D and innovation: To remain competitive, manufacturers are branching into premium and naturally enhanced formulations, including customized blends and upscale positioning.
• Marketing leverage: Influencer campaigns and digital content centered on the benefits of rice-based hair care have boosted product visibility, particularly during and after the pandemic.
• Distribution expansion: Brands are reaching consumers via both online platforms and traditional retail outlets, broadening market access.

Forward Outlook

As awareness of sustainability and natural hair solutions grows globally, industry analysts predict the rice shampoo bar market will continue its positive trajectory. With consumer demand for health-conscious, environment-friendly personal care items strong, the market is expected to pass the $1.3 million mark by the early 2030s.

Billions of households worldwide sigh in relief as rice prices have dropped from 15-year highs. Rice prices have gone up over the past couple of years due to various weather phenomena such as El Niño, floods, and delayed monsoons. India, known as the world’s top rice exporter, announced export bans back in 2023 to ensure their own supplies due to erratic rainfall distribution that affected rice production. The ban contributed to shortfalls in production, hiking up rice prices globally.

Now, with more favorable weather in many rice-producing countries, global rice stocks have become sufficient, prompting a reduction in rice prices. India, which lifted their export ban last year, is expected to produce more of the crop, spurring the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization to increase its 2024-25 global rice output estimate by 3.6 million tonnes to 534 million tonnes. Cambodia and Myanmar are also projected to have a boost in production, increasing ending stockpiles to 206 million tonnes.

32-year-old Yassine Toure, a roadside eatery cook in Dakar, Senegal, says she can breathe a bit easier now. According to Toure, whose family consumes 25 kilograms of rice a week, rice had been “so expensive that, at one point, buying it was seen as a luxury.” She further stated, “I don’t have to worry all the time about how to feed my children.”

Rice prices are expected to decline further with good rainfall boosting rice production in Asia last year, and forecasts that India will have a decent rainy season that won’t be affected by El Niño. Peter Timmer, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University who has decades of expertise in food security, stated, “As the world’s largest rice exporter, India is keen to regain the markets that it had to give up during the export controls.”

While the drop in rice prices and sufficient stockpiles can be seen as good things by many consumers, they pose a risk to farmers. Economist Shirley Mustafa stated that the plunge in rice prices may “spur farmers to plant less in the approaching season, risking a cut in supplies.”

“Low prices are bad for any producing country like India because they have reduced the profit margins of exporters as well as farmers,” added B.V. Krishna Rao, president of The Rice Exporters Association. 

The abundance in stocks has also pushed Thai white rice to its lowest amount since 2022. Thai farmer Sutharat Kaysorn already feels the pain of the low rice prices. Like Kaysorn, many Thai rice farmers had called out the government in the last months, protesting the reduction in prices and asking them to boost support for farmers after a USD 56 million subsidy plan fell short of their demands.

Kaysorn, who owns about 100 acres of rice fields in Sing Buri, stated that she might not be able to take out credit to meet the next harvest. As it is, Kaysorn is already having a hard time repaying her loans on time. “The current paddy prices are not even enough to cover production costs such as fertilizers and workers’ wages,” she said.

According to Mustafa, the retail price of rice in various countries is determined by various factors. These could range from “the strength of the local currency to transport expenses, reserves in importing nations, cost of credit to finance overseas purchases,” and so on.

In the Philippines, where rice is a staple, the government had to intervene to reduce sky-high rice prices by declaring a food security emergency. This allowed them to release buffer stocks, effectively easing local prices. Fheri Oris, who sells rice in her corner store in Batangas, said that the reduction in local prices has helped her and her family of three, giving them disposable income. “The savings are not substantial, but they help relieve the pressure on our household budget. When prices fall, people tend to buy more. I hope it stays that way,” she said.

Indian-American agricultural economist Samarendu stated that policy shifts in India and the Philippines helped change the global rice market landscape.

In 2023, India halted its export of non-basmati white rice due to late monsoon rains and fears of production shortfalls. The Indian government reversed its decision in 2024, lifting the ban and allowing exports once more. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the government implemented a maximum suggested retail price for imported rice.

Mohanty, who is also an award-winning food pioneer and specialist in international development and rural livelihoods, declared India and the Philippines as “game changers” as their policy shifts allowed global rice prices to decline by 18%. “These concurrent policy changes created a perfect storm that ultimately stabilized and transformed rice markets worldwide,” said Mohanty. He added that since the beginning of 2025, global rice prices appear to soften even further.

India is known as the world’s largest rice exporter. According to Mohanty, India’s decision to lift the ban was “understandable, given record domestic production resulting from favorable monsoon conditions and mounting pressure from farmers facing depressed local prices.”

Mohanty also pointed out the “aggressive market reforms” of the Philippines under the leadership of Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel. The Philippines is known as the world’s largest importer of rice, and the government applied strict measures such as apprehending hoarders and price manipulators as well as using technology to monitor rice stocks and movements in order to stabilize rice prices in the country.

In an earlier statement, Secretary Tiu Laurel said that the maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) may be further reduced to PHP 45 per kilo of rice, much lower than the initial price cap of PHP 58/kg that the Department of Agriculture implemented in January.

“The Philippines had long struggled with rice price volatility, with urban consumers often paying significant premiums due to supply chain inefficiencies and market manipulation. What market analysts soon termed the ‘Laurel Effect’ proved remarkable in its impact. By targeting unnecessary artificial demand created by speculation and hoarding, the Philippines’ approach created a ripple effect throughout Asian rice markets.” Mohanty stated.